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Tasks

T3.1 - Coordinated uncertainty evaluation [Months: 1-48]
DWD, KNMI, MO, UEA, EDI, NMA-RO, MI
Evaluation preparation: Definition of a common evaluation procedure that can be applied to the different reanalysis
products (deterministic, ensemble and downscaled). This procedure will be applied similarly with reference
datasets at the European-scale (in-situ grids and satellite-derived datasets), for special climate features at
high resolution in sub-regions and for third-party national evaluation activities, ensuring comparability of results
and targeting of user needs. Identification of a set of ECVs, derived indices and time and space scales of
primary interest, agreement on a minimum subset of regional reanalyses products for which a distributed
evaluation (including external participants) is practically feasible, and definition of a minimum set of evaluation
scores, considering spatial-temporal, probabilistic and multi-variate measures, e.g., systematic and random errors,
frequency distributions, extreme values, variability and trends, correlations in time and space, cross-correlation
between ECVs (UEA, KNMI, DWD) and concepts of probabilistic forecast verification (EDI, MO, DWD). Link
with user-oriented partners from WP4 (DWD, indicators of primary interest, downstream use of uncertainties),
with partners from WP1 (UEA and KNMI, uncertainties in reference datasets), from WP2 (MO, data producers,
evaluation procedures, interpretation of reanalysis data) and with third party participants of WP4.3 (KNMI, in kind
contributions to basic evaluation). (KNMI, MO, UEA, EDI, NMA-RO, DWD, MI, M1 - M15) Evaluation synthesis:
Develop a synthesis of knowledge achieved from all evaluation activities on the uncertainty of regional reanalyses
in light of applications and translated into a language that is understood by users. Include European scale analysis
as well as climate features and sub-regions of special interest. Shall help users in the state-of-the-art application
of the datasets developed in WP2.

T3.2 - Assessing uncertainties over the European domain [Months: 15-45]  KNMI, UEA, EDI, NMA-RO, DWD, MI
Evaluation over Europe: Evaluation of the WP2 reanalysis uncertainties using the common evaluation procedures
(task 3.1) comparing against a) satellite-based ECVs and b) gridded observations.
a) Reanalysis products (from WP2) such as cloud coverage, solar radiation, precipitation over ocean are compared
against CM-SAF and SMHI satellite data sets (by KNMI and DWD), further satellite data sets to be investigated
with respect to their fitness for regional reanalysis uncertainty characterization include data sets from: ESA CCI
Cloud, ESA CCI Soil Moisture, DUE GlobAlbedo, DUE GlobSnow (snow extend and snow water equivalent), and
DUE GlobTemperature (by DWD and KNMI).
b) Reanalysis products (from WP2) such as precipitation, temperature and snow are compared against gridded
observation data from WP1 (by KNMI, UEA), against GPCC precipitation (by DWD) and against national/
subregional gridded datasets for the Alps (by EDI) and Scandinavia (by MI). Drought indices will be derived from
the reanalysis products (from WP2) and compared to the drought indices derived from the gridded observation
data (by NMA-RO).
As this covers the area with and without satellite observations, the evaluation should provide a basis for assessing
quality and uncertainties in the reanalysis data prior to the satellite era.